As we begin to place the mid-point of February in our rear view and with only six games remaining in Mountain West play. It’s time to place a heavier emphasis on those Bracketology Reports that have been rolling out for a few weeks now.
It may not be the most exciting time to be a Mountain West fan. With nowhere near the record setting number of selections that occurred in 2024, six in total. With poor non-conference performances for some & weak strength of schedules for others, there’s no one cause to point to. We are simply here, crossing our fingers for three teams to get in with a team not coached by Brian Dutcher or Jerrod Calhoun cutting down the nets in Las Vegas.
For now, we chose five different websites to reference. Some old school heavy hitters like CBS, ESPN & Sports Illustrated to go along with some new kids on the block in One3 & Basket Under Review. Let’s see how Mountain West teams are faring out there with less than a month of games to go.
Current Metric Rankings for Perspective Teams:
Boise State-KenPom 58th, NET: 60th
Grand Canyon– KenPom 67th, NET: 77th
Nevada– KenPom 59th, NET: 59th
New Mexico– KenPom 44th, NET: 44th
San Diego State- KenPom 41st, NET: 41st
Utah State- KenPom 24th, NET: 23rd
What the Experts Say:
No. 7 Seed Utah State vs. No. 10 Seed Central Florida in South (Oklahoma City, OK)
No. 11 Seed San Diego State vs. No. 11 Missouri in Dayton then West (Washington DC)
New Mexico-First Four Out
No. 8 Seed Utah State vs. No. 9 Seed Miami in West (San Diego, CA)
No. 11 Seed San Diego State vs. No. 11 UCLA in Dayton then Midwest (Portland, OR)
New Mexico-First Four Out
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M in Midwest (Philadelphia)
No. 11 Seed San Diego State vs. No. 11 USC- First Four Matchup in Dayton then South (San Diego)
New Mexico-First Four Out
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 SMU in West (San Diego, CA)
No. 11 Seed San Diego State vs. No. 11 Seed UCLA First Four Matchup in Dayton then East (Washington DC)
New Mexico-First Four Out
No. 7 Seed Utah State vs. No. 10 Seed SMU in South (Houston)
No. 11 Seed San Diego State vs. No. 11 Seed UCLA First Four Matchup in Dayton then South (Tampa, FL)
New Mexico-First Four Out
The message appears to be the same throughout. With New Mexico as a bubble team the past month or so, their poor performance two weeks ago where they dropped home games against Utah State and Boise State really hurt. Essentially popping their bubble status and placing them in the First Four category. Can they dig themselves out of that hole, possibly. They would need a sweep of all opponents going forward; to avoid the must win scenario they currently face in Las Vegas next month.
While the Aztecs still sit on the bubble, but more favorably towards Last Four In status. The only tiny bit of differing info out there is who they’ll face in Dayon as a First Four Matchup and where they’ll play after if they win. The consensus appears to be Mick Cronin’s UCLA, but fellow SoCal Big Ten School USC was also mentioned by ONE3 and Missouri by CBS. Any of those matchups will tests the Aztec’s March Madness preparedness.
Lastly there’s Utah State, the only Mountain West team currently guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance. Several sites pegged the Aggies as a No. 7 seed with a few dropping them down to No. 8. Their possible opponent also varied with ACC schools Miami (FL) and SMU listed as possible foes & Texas A&M mentioned once. Jerrod Calhoun is already getting linked to head coaching vacancies, appearing on different Kansas State wish lists and it’s only February.
Another fun resource is Basket Under Review’s Bubble Watch Tracker, one that dives a little deeper into your favorite team’s chances to make the tourney. There they have New Mexico & Boise State as possible options, but with the caveat that those teams & their fans “Double the deodorant” on selection Sunday.
Larry Muniz is a Mountain West Basketball beat writer for Couch Potato Sports along with West Coast mid-major coverage at Mid-Major Madness.
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