As we begin to see the month of March appear over the horizon and with only four games remaining in Mountain West play. We’ll continue to place a heavier emphasis on those Bracketology Reports that have been rolling out for a few weeks now.

It may not be the most exciting time to be a Mountain West fan. With nowhere near the record setting number of selections that occurred in 2024 (6) currently predicted. As poor non-conference performances for some & weak strength of schedules for others, there’s no one cause to point to. We are simply here, crossing our fingers and hoping somehow, we do not turn into a one-bid league as a few experts have predicted below.

It would feel a little unprecedented, but it has happened before. Most recently was in 2016-2017, where an Eric Musselman led Wolf Pack squad swept both the regular season and conference hardware and was the only team to represent the conference in the Big Dance. Also, the year before in 2015-2016, when Fresno State won their only Mountain West title in Las Vegas. Essentially stealing the only bid that season from San Diego State, the regular season title winners. The Aztecs ended up making it all the way to the NIT semifinals that March.

For now, we chose five different websites to reference. Some old school heavy hitters like CBS, ESPN & Sports Illustrated to go along with some new kids on the block in One3 & Basket Under Review. Let’s see how Mountain West teams are faring out there with less than a few weeks of games to go.

Current Metric Rankings for Perspective Teams:

Boise State 16-11, 8-8 (2-6 Q1) (4-3 Q2) (6-1 Q3) (3-0 Q4)-KenPom 60th, NET: 62nd 

Grand Canyon 17-10, 10-6 in MWC (3-4 Q1) (4-3 Q2) (1-2 Q3) (9-1 Q4)- KenPom 61st, NET: 75th

Nevada 18-9, in MWC (1-5 Q1) (5-2 Q2) (9-0 Q3) (3-2 Q4)- KenPom 67th, NET: 66th

New Mexico 21-6, 12-4 in MWC (2-4 Q1) (7-1 Q2) (2-1 Q3) (9-0 Q4) – KenPom 43rd, NET: 43rd

San Diego State 18-8, 12-4 in MWC (1-5 Q1) (5-2 Q2) (5-1 Q3) (6-0 Q4) KenPom 45th, NET: 44th

Utah State 23-4, 13-3 in MWC (3-3 Q1) (7-0 Q2) (8-1 Q3) (4-0 A4)- KenPom 23rd, NET: 24th

What the Experts Say:

CBS

No. 7 Seed Utah State vs. No. 10 Seed Clemson in East (St. Louis)

San Diego State on Bubble Watch

No. 11 Seed New Mexico vs. No. 11 TCU in Dayton then Midwest vs. No. 6 North Carolina (Tampa)

ESPN

No. 7 Seed Utah State vs. No. 10 Seed Central Florida in East (St. Louis)

San Diego State-First Four Out

No. 11 Seed New Mexico vs. No. 11 TCU in Dayton then Midwest vs. No. 6 North Carolina (Tampa)

ONE3

No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Miami in Midwest (Philadelphia)

San Diego State on Bubble Watch

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 11 Missouri in Dayton then in East vs. No. 6 Louisville (Buffalo)

Basket Under Review

No. 8 Seed Utah State vs. No. 9 St. Mary’s in West (San Diego)

San Diego State-Next Four Out

New Mexico-First Four Out

Sports Illustrated

No. 8 Seed Utah State vs. No. 9 Clemson in South (Houston)

San Diego State-First Four Out

New Mexico-First Four Out

Things have changed since our last Bracketology report. After a week full of upsets around the Mountain West, the fallout appears to be split into two schools of thought. One being New Mexico and San Diego State switch spots as the last four in selection as one of the dual No. 11 seeds who duke it out in Dayton for their spot. The other declaring the Mountain West a one bid league for the first time in nearly a decade.

I believe Kevin Sweeney of Sports Illustrated said it best, “The league has gotten four or more bids in each of the last four years, but only one team (Utah State) is in today’s projection with New Mexico and San Diego State just on the outside looking in. For a league with three top-50 and six top-75 teams in the NET to get just one bid would be borderline malpractice, but the only way to ensure a second bid may be for someone other than Utah State to win the Mountain West tournament.”

Lastly there’s Utah State, still the only Mountain West team currently guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance. With several sites projecting the Aggies as the conference tournament champions. It appears, a team not based out of Logan will have to cut down the nets inside the Thomas and Mack Center next week to avoid the one bid league designation. Now whether that would affect New Mexico or even Utah State’s at-large aspirations is a question for a later date.

Another fun resource is Basket Under Reviews Bubble Watch Tracker, one that dives a little deeper into your favorite team’s chances to make the tourney. There they have New Mexico and San Diego State as “Double the Deodorant” status, where last week they were in the “Some Perspiration” field. 

Larry Muniz is a Mountain West Basketball beat writer for Couch Potato Sports along with West Coast mid-major coverage at Mid-Major Madness.

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